At Davos in January 2026, Mark Carney delivered a line that may define the next decade of global trade:

“Middle powers must act together — because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.”

Most analysts heard elegant rhetoric.
South Africa heard an invitation.

And instead of polite applause, Pretoria started quoting Carney’s words back — publicly.

What’s unfolding between Canada and South Africa isn’t a flashy mega-deal or a dramatic treaty signing. There are no oversized flags or emergency summits. Instead, this is something slower — and potentially far more powerful: the deliberate construction of a new middle-power coalition that could reshape global trade dynamics for the next half-century.

But first, the uncomfortable truth.

Canada’s economic footprint in Africa is shockingly small for a G7 country. In 2024, Africa accounted for barely 1% of Canada’s total merchandise trade, according to a Senate committee report. Exports to South Africa totaled just $583 million — roughly the same level as in 2006.

Nearly twenty years of stagnation.

Meanwhile, France, Germany, and even Italy have built far deeper commercial relationships across the continent. By comparison, Canada has largely sat on the sidelines.

Yet paradoxically, that neglect may now be Canada’s opportunity.

South Africa is undergoing a quiet turnaround. Chronic electricity shortages that once crippled its economy have eased. The rand has strengthened to three-year highs. Growth is ticking upward. And the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is steadily lowering trade barriers across a market projected to reach 1.4 billion people — on its way to 2.5 billion by 2050.

Layer on top of that a new wildcard: Donald Trump’s renewed trade war strategy. A 30% tariff imposed on South African goods has jolted Pretoria into actively diversifying its trade relationships.

South African economic advisor Wandile Sihlobo has publicly described Canada as a key potential partner in the Americas — and signaled urgency.

That’s not diplomatic fluff. That’s strategic repositioning.

For Carney, this moment is a test of his broader doctrine: the idea that middle powers — countries too large to be ignored but too small to dominate — can band together to shape global rules instead of being shaped by superpowers.

So far, the delivery has been mixed.

After meeting President Cyril Ramaphosa at the G20 in November, Carney announced three initiatives:

Talks toward a Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (FIPA) — though South Africa has historically been cautious about such treaties.

A South African trade mission to Canada — which critics noted was narrowly focused on agriculture and centered around a machinery expo in Saskatchewan.

A planned FinDev Canada office in Cape Town — promised for 2025 but still without a confirmed opening date, and expected to cover the entire continent from a single hub.

Experts have pointed out the gap between rhetoric and execution. Some argue there’s little evidence of sustained high-level engagement.

But here’s where the story shifts.

Carney has openly acknowledged prioritizing regions with immediate high returns — Europe, Asia-Pacific, India, Japan, South Korea — building what he calls the “architecture” of middle-power cooperation in layers.

Africa, he suggests, is the next layer.

And the strategic logic is hard to ignore.

South Africa is resource-rich, democratic, and navigating the same geopolitical turbulence as Canada. Both nations are seeking to reduce vulnerability to unpredictable American trade policy. Both want diversified markets. Both hold key minerals essential to the green energy transition — from platinum to lithium to rare earth elements.

If Carney’s coalition is real, Africa cannot be optional. It must be central.

China already has a deep presence across the continent. European firms dominate sectors like solar energy in South Africa. The window for Canada to scale up engagement is real — but not permanent.

This isn’t about symbolic diplomacy. It’s about execution: high-level missions in Ottawa and Toronto, real capital flows, functioning development offices, sector-to-sector partnerships in mining, agriculture, manufacturing, and clean energy.

The foundations are forming. South African officials are openly engaging. Business communities are initiating exploratory talks. Negotiations, however slow, are underway.

The question now isn’t whether Canada will engage Africa.

It’s whether Canada will move fast enough.

Carney’s middle-power vision is expanding. Europe is aligned. Asia-Pacific partnerships are strengthening. But Africa may be where this strategy either becomes truly global — or remains a well-spoken half-measure.

The old global order is shifting. The seats at the table are being rearranged.

And if Carney is right, those who don’t claim one may soon find themselves on the menu.